LTS: VN đã lên đến WallStreet rồi. Lạm phát hơn 25% tính đến tháng 5 năm 2008. Giữ đô la, EURO, vàng, bất động sản, hàng nhu yếu phẩm có thể làm cho đồng tiền của bạn, của gia đình bạn không bị mất. Làm lụng cả đời, với mồ hôi và nước mắt để có, nay bổng tan biến trong chốc lác.
Tin ngày 09 tháng 6 năm 2008.
Vietnamese Skeptical of Currency Assurances
By JAMES HOOKWAY
June 9, 2008; Page A12
Vietnam's Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung said last week he is confident the country won't have to devalue its currency.
Ordinary Vietnamese aren't so sure, pushing black-market rates for the dollar to new highs as concerns spread about Vietnam's inflation-wracked economy, especially with oil prices surging.
[Nguyen Tan Dung]
The country has been hit by a wave of strikes as it grapples with the impact of seven months of double-digit inflation, which hit an annualized rate of 25.2% in May. The stock market has collapsed as investors switch to gold.
On Friday, it cost 18,500 Vietnamese dong to buy $1 on Vietnam's informal market, compared with the official rate of 16,124 dong set by Vietnam's central bank the same day. Forward currency markets are pricing a further devaluation of 40% for the dong in the next 12 months.
Still, Mr. Dung is holding fast to his government's policy of maintaining a firm currency.
Last week, he told economists from J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and officials from state-owned Bank for Investment and Development of Vietnam, BIDV, that the country remains financially strong. In a statement released Friday, BIDV quoted Mr. Dung as saying "Vietnam has analyzed and studied the impact of devaluation in the current situation, and come to the conclusion that this is useless."
Representatives from J.P. Morgan who attended the meeting in Hanoi couldn't be reached to comment.
The upshot is that despite Mr. Dung's reassurances, Vietnam's economy could be in for another testing week after Friday's new record prices for oil -- an important economic component in Vietnam, which imports all its refined oil needs.
Ratings companies Fitch Ratings and Moody's Investors Service have both downgraded their outlook for Vietnam's sovereign ratings to negative as Mr. Dung and his economic-policy team struggle to get a grip on rising prices.
"Rising inflation is proving very difficult to control, and pressures have rapidly built up on the balance of payments," said Thomas Byrne, Moody's senior vice president, last week. "For the authorities, the dilemma now is how to dampen growth without throwing the economy into recession or damaging the environment for foreign direct investment."
One of Asia's fastest-growing economies -- it has grown by an average of 7.5% a year since 2000 -- Vietnam has struggled to get inflation under control after high oil and food costs began to drive up consumer prices last year.
Economists familiar with Vietnam's Communist government say its leaders' reluctance to push up interest rates stems from their wish to ensure a steady supply of cheap money to fuel the expansion of state-owned companies and also to support Vietnam's sagging stock market, which has lost 58.5% of its value since the beginning of the year. The stock market's main index fell 1.5% to 384.24 Friday.
At the same time, the central bank, the State Bank of Vietnam, on Friday began enforcing long-ignored rules prohibiting foreign-exchange agents from selling dollars to Vietnamese who are scrambling to try to protect their savings.
Meanwhile, Benedict Bingham, International Monetary Fund country chief, said at a donor meeting with the government on Friday that Vietnam would be better off raising interest rates to a level that might restore confidence in the currency and banking system -- even if that slows down the movement of funds to state-run companies.
"The increase in interest rates should be complemented by strengthened oversight of the banking system to curb imprudent lending practices and address any emerging vulnerabilities in the banking system," Mr. Bingham said, according to Agence France-Presse.